Thaum Lub Rau Hli 30, Ecovacs Robot Conference thiab Suzhou Bay Service Robot Industry Summit tau qhib hauv Suzhou. Wang Tianmiao, tus xibfwb ntawm Beihang University, tau raug caw tuaj koom rau hauv lub rooj sib tham ntawm kev lag luam robotics thiab muab ib daim ntawv qhia zoo tshaj plaws ntawm cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb thiab kev txhim kho ntawm kev pabcuam neeg hlau.
Raws li lub voj voog ntev ntev, xws li mobile Internet thiab smartphones (2005-2020), tsheb tshiab zog thiab tsheb ntse (2015-2030), digital economy thiab ntse robots (2020-2050), thiab lwm yam. , lawv ib txwm ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tsoom fwv. Lub ntiaj teb, kev lag luam, kev kawm, kev nqis peev hauv zej zog, thiab lwm yam tau them nyiaj rau nws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau Tuam Tshoj. Raws li cov nyiaj faib ua lag luam thiab cov nyiaj faib pej xeem maj mam poob qis, cov nyiaj faib nyiaj txiag tau dhau los ua lub hauv paus tseem ceeb rau kev rov tshwm sim ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam thiab kev tsim kho kom ruaj khov thiab ceev ceev ntawm lub teb chaws muaj zog. Ntawm lawv, Artificial txawj ntse, txawj ntse neeg hlau, high-end manufacturing ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab, carbon nruab nrab lub zog tshiab, biotechnology, thiab lwm yam. tau dhau los ua ib tug tseem ceeb engine rau tshiab industrial transformation thiab tshiab economic kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej.
Kev loj hlob ntawm kev sib raug zoo thiab kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm ntau yam kev qhuab qhia yog niaj hnub txhawb kev hloov pauv thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov neeg hlau ntse los ntawm kev siv tshuab los tsim.
Kev thov rau kev loj hlob kev lag luam loj thiab hauv nroog agglomeration: Ntawm ib sab, kev ua haujlwm zoo thiab kev tsav tsheb zoo, kev ua haujlwm poob qis thiab tus nqi nce tsav kev loj hlob los ntawm kev lag luam theem nrab mus rau kev lag luam tertiary, thawj kev lag luam daim ntawv thov, thiab lwm yam tib lub sijhawm, Belt and Road Initiative tau dhau los ua ib qho txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb rau kuv lub teb chaws cov neeg hlau thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob. Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov agglomeration ntawm cov pejxeem thiab logistics nyob rau hauv lub nroog loj, khoom noj khoom haus, kev ua liaj ua teb thiab cov khoom siv sideline, npaj zaub thiab zaub mov tshiab, khib nyiab thiab dej phwj tuaj thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, kev tsav tsheb tsis muaj zog thiab kev thauj mus los ntse, kev tswj xyuas lub zog thiab lub zog cia thiab roj teeb. Kev sib pauv, AIot thiab kev saib xyuas kev nyab xeeb, kev phom sij txaus ntshai robots, nrog rau kev sab laj, kev thauj mus los, kev tu, tsev so, kev nthuav qhia, kas fes thiab lwm yam neeg hlau tau dhau los ua kev pabcuam sai thiab cov khoom siv robots.
Kev nrawm ntawm cov neeg laus thiab cov kev xav tau ntawm cov tiam tshiab ntawm kev lom zem, kab lis kev cai, kev muaj tswv yim thiab kev ua kis las: Ntawm ib sab, qhov kev thov rau kev sib tham, escort, pab, saib xyuas neeg laus, kev kho kom rov zoo, tshuaj suav tshuaj thiab lwm yam neeg hlau kuj dhau los ua. ntau thiab ceev ceev, suav nrog cov kab mob digital kho mob thiab AI virtual robots, kev kho kom rov zoo thiab cov tshuaj suav tshuaj zaws neeg hlau, cov neeg hlau tsis muaj teeb meem, tig cov zaws thiab cov chaw tso quav tso quav, thiab lwm yam. Raws li kev txheeb xyuas tsis tiav, 15% ntawm cov neeg dhau mus. 65 xyoo, 25% tshaj 75 xyoo, thiab 45% tshaj 85 xyoo xav tau kev pab no. Ntawm qhov tod tes, robots rau cov tub ntxhais hluas hauv kev siv tshuab, kab lis kev cai thiab muaj tswv yim, kev lom zem, kev ua kis las thiab lwm yam kev lag luam suav nrog tib neeg lub koom haum virtual thiab kev sib txuas lus, tib neeg-tshuab hybrid ntse neeg hlau, kev xav tus khub neeg hlau, ua noj robots, tu neeg hlau, VR tus kheej lub cev muaj zog robots. , qia hlwb thiab kev zoo nkauj. Txhaj robots, lom zem seev cev robots, thiab lwm yam.
Irreplaceable robots nyob rau hauv tshwj xeeb scenarios: Ntawm ib sab tes, interstellar kev tshawb nrhiav, kev kho cov hauj lwm meej, thiab cov ntaub so ntswg lom yog tsav los ntawm cov kev xav tau siab heev, nrog rau qhov chaw tshawb nrhiav thiab kev nkag teb chaws, lub hlwb cuam tshuam thiab nco ntsoov, phais neeg hlau thiab vascular nanorobots, myogenic lub neej cov ntaub so ntswg thiab lub cev, thiab kev noj qab haus huv Zoo siab biochemical technology, kev tsis txawj tuag ntawm lub neej thiab tus ntsuj plig, thiab lwm yam. Ntawm qhov tod tes, kev ua haujlwm txaus ntshai thiab kev tsov kev rog hauv zos txhawb kev xav tau, suav nrog kev ua haujlwm txaus ntshai, kev kub ntxhov thiab kev puas tsuaj, kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim cov drones, cov tso tsheb hlau luam tsis muaj neeg siv, cov nkoj tsis muaj neeg siv, riam phom ntse. systems, robot warriors, thiab lwm yam.
Dynamic 1: Cov kev tshawb fawb tseem ceeb ntawm cov ntsiab lus kub kub, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab cov khoom siv sib txuas yooj yooj yim, NLP thiab ntau hom, lub hlwb-khoos phis tawj interface thiab kev paub, software yooj yim thiab platforms, thiab lwm yam yog qhov tseem ceeb tshwj xeeb, vim qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws. kev tawg yuav tsum tau hloov Robot daim ntawv, cov khoom lag luam thiab cov qauv kev pabcuam
1. Humanoid neeg hlau tshuab, lub neej zoo li lub cev, cov leeg nqaij, cov tawv nqaij, kev tswj myoelectric, cov ntaub so ntswg, cov nqaij mos, thiab lwm yam;
2. DNA nanorobots thiab cov khoom tshiab micro-nano Cheebtsam, nanomaterials, micro-electromechanical, 3D luam ntawv, ntse prostheses, micro-nano manufacturing thiab sib dhos, tsav lub zog hloov dua siab tshiab, quab yuam kev sib cuam tshuam, thiab lwm yam .;
3. Biological sensing technology, audio thiab visual touch sensors, edge AI computing, rigid-flex coupling, perception-driven integration, etc.;
4. Kev nkag siab ntawm cov lus ntuj, kev paub txog kev xav thiab kev sib txuas lus ntawm tib neeg-khoos phis tawj thev naus laus zis, kev sib tham kev txawj ntse kev sib txuas lus thev naus laus zis, kev sib tham ntawm kev xav, kev sib tham ib leeg, kev saib xyuas menyuam yaus thiab neeg laus, thiab lwm yam;
5. Lub hlwb-computer interface thiab biomechanical integration technology, hlwb science, neural nco ntsoov, myoelectric teeb liab, kev paub daim ntawv qhia, kev paub paub, tshuab kev xav, thiab lwm yam .;
6. Yuanverse virtual tib neeg thiab neeg hlau fusion thev naus laus zis, tiam tom ntej hauv Internet, kev lom zem sib cuam tshuam, cov neeg sawv cev, kev paub txog cov ntsiab lus, kev ua haujlwm nyob deb, thiab lwm yam;
7. Composite neeg hlau tshuab "tes, taw, qhov muag thiab lub hlwb" kev koom ua ke, muaj xws li mobile platform, neeg hlau caj npab, tsis pom kev module, end effector, thiab lwm yam., integrating ib puag ncig kev xav, positioning thiab navigation, ntse tswj, thiab lwm yam., unstructured ib puag ncig Kev lees paub, ntau lub tshuab kev sib koom tes, kev thauj mus los ntse, thiab lwm yam .;
8. Super software automation, neeg hlau kev khiav hauj lwm, neeg hlau mos, RPA, khoom, nyiaj txiag, accounting, tsoom fwv affairs thiab lwm yam automation, thiab lwm yam .;
9. Huab kev pabcuam neeg hlau, cov kev pabcuam huab faib, cov chaw ua haujlwm huab, kev txawj ntse thiab tshuab kev kawm, kev txawj ntse txawj ntse txhais tau, cov kev pabcuam xauj tsev nyob deb, cov kev pabcuam hauv chaw taws teeb, neeg hlau ua kev pabcuam RaaS, thiab lwm yam.;
10. Kev coj ncaj ncees, neeg hlau rau qhov zoo, kev ua haujlwm, kev ceev ntiag tug, kev coj ncaj ncees thiab kev cai lij choj, thiab lwm yam.
Dynamic 2: Robot +, ntawm cov sensors thiab cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb, cov ntawv thov kev lag luam siab zaus (sab hauv tsev thiab sab nraum zoov logistics, tu, pab saib xyuas kev xav, thiab lwm yam), Raas thiab App software tshwj xeeb yog qhov tseem ceeb, vim tias cov no yuav tsum muaj ntau dua. ntau dua 10 lab units ib yam khoom lossis ntau dua Daim ntawv ua lag luam ua lag luam
Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb tshaj plaws suav nrog AI lub zeem muag, quab yuam thiab kov, RV, lub cev muaj zog, AMR, tsim thiab siv software, thiab lwm yam.; super software automation cov cuab yeej AIops, RPA, Raas thiab lwm cov qauv loj ntsug, suav nrog kev xauj, kev cob qhia, kev ua haujlwm, thiab kev txhim kho daim ntawv thov thiab lwm qhov chaw pabcuam huab cua Raas; kho mob robots; mobile composite robots rau loading thiab unloading, khiav logistics los yog tu; kev pabcuam neeg hlau rau kev lom zem, catering, massage, moxibustion, escorting, thiab lwm yam.; rau kev ua liaj ua teb, kev tsim kho, rov ua dua tshiab, disassembly thiab kev sib dhos, lub zog, Cov tshuab tsis siv neeg xws li kev lag luam nuclear.
Hais txog kev siv neeg hlau + kev lag luam, tam sim no muaj qee lub tuam txhab hauv kuv lub teb chaws cov neeg hlau ua tiav cov tshuab thiab cov khoom tseem ceeb uas tau tshwm sim. Nws xav tias yuav muaj kev thov dav dav hauv lub zog tshiab, kev xa khoom siv hluav taws xob, kev ua liaj ua teb thiab cov khoom siv sab nraud thiab cov khoom siv, biotechnology, kev pabcuam pej xeem, kev pabcuam tu vaj tse, thiab lwm yam, uas qhia txog yav tom ntej. Segments tab tom tsim explosively.
Lub "14th Tsib Xyoo Plan" Robot Industry Development Plan hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm cov neeg hlau kev lag luam cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 14th Tsib Xyoo Plan yuav tshaj 20%, thiab qhov ceev ntawm kev tsim robots yuav ob npaug. Daim ntawv thov scenarios npog rau G-kawg, mus rau B-kawg, mus rau C-kawg, thiab lwm yam. Ntau qhov ntev. Ib puag ncig cov qauv, qhov chaw siab, thiab cov nqi ua haujlwm kuj ua rau "tshuab hloov pauv" qhov mob ntawm qee qhov xwm txheej.
Dynamic 3: Cov qauv loj + neeg hlau, nws yuav tsum ua ke nrog cov qauv loj dav dav nrog cov qauv loj ntsug ntawm cov ntawv thov neeg hlau tshwj xeeb hauv embodied intelligent interactive, kev paub txog, thiab cov txheej txheem daim ntawv thov scenarios, zoo heev txhim kho qib ntawm neeg hlau txawj ntse thiab ua rau nws ntau nyob rau hauv. - qhov tob thiab dav. daim ntawv thov
Raws li peb txhua tus paub, kev siv ntau yam, NLP, CV, sib tham sib thiab lwm yam qauv AI loj yog tsim kho cov neeg hlau txoj kev xav, ib puag ncig kev paub tsis meej, kev paub txog kev txiav txim siab fusion thiab kev tswj hwm, thiab lwm yam, thiab xav tias yuav txhim kho tau zoo. mus rau theem ntawm kev txawj ntse neeg hlau thiab ntau yam ntawm daim ntawv thov teb. yuav tau txais kev txhim kho zoo heev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov qauv dav dav ntawm daim ntawv thov scenarios ntawm embodied txawj ntse, kev sib tham sib, kev paub, thiab standardization nrog cov qauv ntsug ntawm kev siv neeg hlau, nrog rau kev tshawb fawb thiab kev kawm, kev pab, kev saib xyuas neeg mob, kev saib xyuas neeg laus, thiab lwm yam. zoo li kev coj ua haujlwm, Kev Tu, kev thauj mus los, thiab lwm yam yuav tsum yog thawj zaug kom ua tiav kev vam meej.
Pab pawg Google DeepMind tau nthuav tawm cov neeg hlau AI ntse tus neeg sawv cev "RoboCat" thaum Lub Rau Hli 20, 2023. Nws yog "universal". RoboCat tuaj yeem kawm tswj cov neeg hlau caj npab kom ua tiav cov haujlwm xws li "ringing", "tsev blocks" thiab "lob txiv hmab txiv ntoo". Kev txheeb xyuas qhov ua tiav ntawm kev ua tiav txoj haujlwm tshiab tau nce los ntawm 36% hauv thawj theem mus rau 74%, ua kom muaj peev xwm kawm tau sai thiab txo qhov xav tau ntawm tib neeg kev saib xyuas kev cob qhia. Google kuj tau ua tiav cov qauv lus PaLM rau cov neeg hlau, nce kev ua tiav ntawm cov neeg hlau ua cov lus txib los ntawm 61% mus rau 74%. Cov qauv no txiav txim siab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev kawm tiav ntawm ib qho kev txawj ntse los ntawm kev sib faib ob qhov tshwm sim: ib qho yog kev ua haujlwm hauv av, uas yog cov lus piav qhia ntawm cov kev txawj ntse tam sim no; lwm qhov yog lub ntiaj teb-hauv av, uas yog txoj hauv kev nkag tau ntawm ntau yam kev txawj thiab kev paub tam sim no tau sau. kev ua tau.
Dynamic 4: Humanoid (bionic) robots yuav tsum tsim ib daim ntawv sib koom ua ke ntawm ib qho khoom siv neeg hlau, uas yuav tsum txhawb nqa kev tsim kho thiab kev loj hlob ntawm lawv cov neeg hlau AI chips, ntau yam sensors, thiab cov khoom siv neeg hlau.
Nrog rau qhov tshwm sim ntawm "Robot +" era, bionic neeg hlau tau txais 100 billion khiav. Nrog kev laus ntawm cov pejxeem thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim ntse, neeg hlau, kev txawj ntse thiab kev pabcuam huab cov ntaub ntawv loj tau nkag mus rau theem kev txhim kho cuam tshuam. Bionic robots tau txhawb nqa lwm qhov kev hloov pauv, txawj ntse thiab huab kev pabcuam kev txhim kho. Kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam loj ntawm kev txawj ntse robots. Ntawm lawv, humanoid thiab quadruped robots yuav yog ob feem loj hlob ntawm cov neeg hlau bionic. Raws li kev kwv yees qhov zoo, yog tias 3-5% ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev ua haujlwm sib txawv los ntawm 2030 txog 2035 yuav raug hloov los ntawm bionic humanoid robots, qhov kev thov rau humanoid robots yuav tsum yog kwv yees li 1-3 lab units, sib xws rau thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam loj uas yuav tshaj 260 billion yuan. Tuam Tshoj Lub khw yuav tshaj 65 billion yuan.
Bionic robots tseem tsom mus rau qhov hloov pauv hloov tau yooj yim thiab kev ua haujlwm siab ua haujlwm kom kov yeej cov teeb meem tseem ceeb. Sib txawv ntawm cov neeg hlau ib txwm muaj, txhawm rau txav mus los yooj yim thiab ua haujlwm zoo hauv qhov chaw tsis muaj teeb meem, cov neeg hlau bionic thiab humanoid muaj kev xav tau ceev dua rau kev ruaj ntseg thiab cov ntsiab lus siab kawg. Ntawm lawv, cov kev teeb meem tseem ceeb yog qhov siab torque density drive units, ntse Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm technologies xws li motion control, real-time perception of the environment, and human-computer interactions, lub zej zog kev kawm tseem nquag tshawb nrhiav cov khoom ntse tshiab, nruj. - yoog tau ua ke nrog cov leeg nqaij, cov tawv nqaij ua kom pom tseeb, cov neeg hlau mos, thiab lwm yam.
"ChatGPT + Bionic Neeg Hlau" tso cai rau cov neeg hlau hloov los ntawm "zoo ib yam li" mus rau "zoo ib yam li tus ntsuj plig". Qhib AI nqis peev hauv 1X Technologies humanoid neeg hlau lub tuam txhab kom nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam neeg hlau, tshawb nrhiav daim ntawv thov ntawm ChatGPT hauv kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov neeg hlau, tshawb nrhiav ntau hom lus loj, thiab txhawb kev sib koom ua ke ntawm humanoid robots hauv tib neeg-khoos phis tawj sib txuas lus kev paub thiab daim ntawv thov txheej txheem kev paub hauv qhov chaw ua haujlwm. Iteratively kawm cov qauv kev txawj ntse los daws cov teeb meem nyuaj ntawm kev lag luam loj hauv kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm qhov kawg-kawg lub hauv paus algorithms ntawm software hauv kev lag luam neeg hlau thiab kev nkag siab pem hauv ntej-kawg AI ntug xam.
Txawm hais tias humanoid robots muaj qhov tsis muaj zog txaus ntawm kev ua haujlwm thiab lub zog, daim ntawv thov thiab kev yooj yim, kev saib xyuas thiab tus nqi, peb yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau qhov kev vam meej ntawm Tesla txoj kev nrawm nrawm ntawm humanoid robots. Yog vim li cas yog tias Tesla tau hloov pauv los ntawm nws tus kheej Pib los ntawm cov kev thov tshwj xeeb ntawm qee qhov kev sib txuas hauv kev tsim tsheb loj loj hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees, Tuam Tshoj, Mexico, thiab lwm yam., humanoid robots tau raug kho dua tshiab thiab tsim, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov qauv siv tshuab. , hluav taws xob tsav tsheb, thiab 40 qhov sib koom ua ke tau tsim tshiab thiab txawm tias qee qhov kev hloov pauv. Cov yam ntxwv, suav nrog cov zis sib txawv, qhov tso zis nrawm, qhov tseeb ntawm qhov chaw, qhov sib zog sib zog, kev quab yuam, kev ntsuas tus kheej, qhov loj me, thiab lwm yam. Cov kev hloov tshiab no yog xav kom tsav humanoid robots mus rau universal "kev xaav muaj peev xwm, kev sib cuam tshuam, thiab kev tswj xyuas kev ua haujlwm. "Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov kws tshaj lij ntsug loj-loj qauv ntawm cov qauv siv hluav taws xob thiab cov ntawv thov tau nthuav tawm txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm nws cov neeg hlau AI chips, ntau yam sensors, thiab cov neeg hlau qhov chaw muab cov saw rov tsim kho thiab teev. Tsuas yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev no nws tuaj yeem ua tau kom loj hlob los ntawm Tesla Neeg Hlau, uas tam sim no muaj ntau dua 1 lab US las, kom maj mam rov ua kom txo tau cov nqi thiab mus txog tus nqi muag ntawm US $ 20,000. .
Thaum kawg, saib txog kev txhim kho keeb kwm thiab kev sib raug zoo, txheeb xyuas cov qauv yav tom ntej ntawm ntau qhov kev qhuab qhia cuam tshuam txog kev tsim kho tshiab xws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab, lub zog tshiab, biology, thiab AI, tsom mus rau lub ntiaj teb kev laus, kev loj hlob hauv nroog, kev hloov pauv ntawm pej xeem, thiab kev sib txuas lus, kev txawj ntse, Tsim kev lag luam tshiab xav tau ntawm qhov loj. Hauv 10 xyoo tom ntej, lub ntiaj teb kev pabcuam neeg hlau ua lag luam yuav tawg los ntawm trillions ntawm qhov chaw tsim khoom lag luam. Tseem muaj qhov tsis paub meej. Muaj peb qhov kev sib cav loj: Ua ntej, txoj kev hloov pauv ntawm daim ntawv? Kev lag luam, kev lag luam, humanoid, qauv loj, lossis daim ntawv thov sib txawv; Thib ob, kev tsav tsheb ruaj khov ntawm kev lag luam muaj nqis? Kev ua haujlwm, kev cob qhia, kev sib koom ua ke, ua tiav cov cav tov, qhov chaw, platforms, thiab lwm yam, tso cai IP, muag, leasing, kev pabcuam, subscriptions, thiab lwm yam, muaj feem xyuam rau kev sib koom tes ntawm cov tsev kawm qib siab, cov tuam txhab ntiag tug, cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv xeev, kev tsim kho tshiab, cov saw hlau, peev. , tsoom fwv, thiab lwm yam; peb tus neeg hlau ethics? Yuav ua li cas robots ua tau zoo? Kuj suav nrog kev ua haujlwm, kev ceev ntiag tug, kev coj ncaj ncees, kev coj ncaj ncees, thiab cov teeb meem raug cai.